Projecting the Future Registered Nurse Workforce After the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Importance: Health care delivery systems rely on a well-prepared and adequately sized registered nurse (RN) workforce. The US RN workforce decreased by more than 100 000 in 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic-a far greater single-year drop than observed over the past 4 decades. The implication for the longer-term growth of the RN workforce is unknown. Objective: To describe recent trends in RN employment through 2023 and forecast the growth of the RN workforce through 2035. Design, Setting, and Participants: Descriptive analysis of recent trends since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in RN employment using data from the US Bureau of the Census Current Population Survey and including employed RNs aged 23 to 69 years from 1982 through 2023, and retrospective cohort analysis of employment trends by birth year and age to project the age distribution and employment of RNs through 2035. Main Outcome and Measures: Annual full-time equivalent (FTE) employment of RNs by age, demographics, and sector of employment; forecast of RN workforce by age through 2035. Results: The final sample included 455 085 RN respondents aged 23 to 69 years. After a sharp decline in 2021, RN employment recovered, and the total number of FTE RNs in 2022 and 2023 was 6% higher than in 2019 (3.35 million vs 3.16 million, respectively). Using data on employment, education, and population through 2022, the size of the RN workforce was projected to increase by roughly 1.2 million FTEs to 4.56 million by 2035, close to prepandemic forecasts. Growth will be driven primarily by RNs aged 35 to 49 years, who are projected to compose nearly half (47%) of the RN workforce in 2035, up from 38% in 2022. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, the rebound in the total size of the US RN workforce during 2022 and 2023 indicates that the earlier drop in RN employment during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic was likely transitory. Updated forecasts of the future RN workforce are very close to those made before the pandemic.

Leveraging nursing strengths, listening to nursing needs: A keynote paper from the 2022 Emory University Business Case for Nursing Summit.

This keynote paper is the first installment in the six-part Nursing Outlook special edition based on the 2022 Emory University Business Case for Nursing Summit. The summit, which took place in March 2022, was led by Emory School of Nursing in partnership with Emory School of Business. It convened national nursing, health care, and business leaders to explore possible solutions to nursing workforce crises. Each of the summit's panels authored a paper in this special edition on their respective topic(s). Those topics included the growth, distribution, resilience, and value of the nursing workforce. As on the day of the event, the keynote frames the panelists' discussions by sharing nursing workforce trends, expert workforce insights, and data-informed questions to help promote dialogue in this series and beyond.

Marriage, Children, and Sex-Based Differences in Physician Hours and Income.

Importance: A better understanding of the association between family structure and sex gaps in physician earnings and hours worked over the life cycle is needed to advance policies addressing persistent sex disparities. Objective: To investigate differences in earnings and hours worked for male and female physicians at various ages and family status. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective, cross-sectional study used data on physicians aged 25 to 64 years responding to the American Community Survey between 2005 and 2019. Exposures: Earned income and work hours. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes included annual earned income, usual hours worked per week, and earnings per hour worked. Gaps in earnings and hours by sex were calculated by family status and physician age and, in some analyses, adjusted for demographic characteristics and year of survey. Data analyses were conducted between 2019 and 2022. Results: The sample included 95 435 physicians (35.8% female, 64.2% male, 19.8% Asian, 4.8% Black, 5.9% Hispanic, 67.3% White, and 2.2% other race or ethnicity) with a mean (SD) age of 44.4 (10.4) years. Relative to male physicians, female physicians were more likely to be single (18.8% vs 11.2%) and less likely to have children (53.3% vs 58.2%). Male-female earnings gaps grew with age and, when accumulated from age 25 to 64 years, were approximately $1.6 million for single physicians, $2.5 million for married physicians without children, and $3.1 million for physicians with children. Gaps in earnings per hour did not vary by family structure, with male physicians earning between 21.4% and 23.9% more per hour than female physicians. The male-female gap in hours worked was 0.6% for single physicians, 7.0% for married physicians without children, and 17.5% for physicians with children. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of US physicians, marriage and children were associated with a greater earnings penalty for female physicians, primarily due to fewer hours worked relative to men. Addressing the barriers that lead to women working fewer hours could contribute to a reduction in the male-female earnings gap while helping to expand the effective physician workforce.

Characteristics of rural registered nurses and the implications for workforce policy.

PURPOSE: Rural registered nurses (RNs) play an integral role in providing care for an underserved population with worse health outcomes than urban counterparts. However, little information is available on the profile of this workforce, which is necessary to understand the capacity of these nurses to provide quality and demanded care presently and in the future. METHODS: We utilize data from the American Community Survey to provide a contemporary analysis on the supply of rural RNs in the United States. FINDINGS: While the number of physicians serving rural populations has decreased in recent years, and rural nurse practitioners (NPs) remain in short supply, rural RNs have steadily grown in numbers at a rate comparable to urban RNs. Rural RNs are markedly less diverse than the populations they serve and only half of rural RNs had a bachelor's degree or higher compared to over 70% for urban RNs. In their supply, young rural nurses appear on pace with urban nurses to adequately replace older nurses and continue to grow the workforce, based on data through 2019. CONCLUSIONS: The rural RN workforce is projected to steadily grow amidst declining rural physicians and limited rural NPs. The burgeoning investments in the rural health workforce present opportunities to help diversify, increase educational access, and further rural readiness for rural RNs moving forward.

Part 6. Education for value-informed nursing practice.

With the ongoing transition to value-based health care, a strong command of foundational economic concepts, like cost and value, and the ability to thoughtfully engage in value-informed nursing practice have become essential for the future of the nursing profession. Earlier in this six-part series, we explained value-informed nursing practice, its historical, economic, and ethical foundation, its promise for an environmentally responsible, innovation-driven future health care, and why its adoption requires a reframing of some of the nursing's professional norms and behaviors. This paper concludes the series with one of the most important issues-education for value-informed nursing practice. We begin by setting forth our vision of how nursing students will learn and apply value informed nursing practice, consider challenges that nurse educators will face, and offer some suggestions for engraining value into the consciousness of the nursing profession.

Part 4: Value-informed nursing practice depends on nursing innovation.

With the adoption of value-based payments which tie reimbursement to patient outcomes and costs, days when nursing is viewed primarily as a cost to hospitals will soon be over. Already the backbone of high-quality care delivery and patient outcomes, nurses are becoming key drivers of health care organizations' financial outcomes, too. The first three articles published in this 6-part series on value-informed nursing practice-practice that considers both the outcomes and the cost of producing the outcomes-described what value-informed nursing practice means, its economic, policy, and ethical impetuses, and how value-informed nursing practice helps improve environmental sustainability of health systems. Here, in Part 4, we focus on the importance of nursing innovation in implementing value-informed nursing practice. We begin by discussing how innovation is connected to value and then examine the false dichotomy, perceived by many, between innovation and evidence-based care. Following this, we examine how health care organizations and systems can support nursing innovation, before concluding with recommendations for nursing educators.

Suicide and altitude: A systematic review of global literature.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this systematic review was to synthesize the existing global literature examining the relationship between altitude and suicide. METHOD: Using the electronic databases PubMed, CINAHL, EMBASE, and PsychInfo published articles in English that addressed the relationship between altitude and suicide as a primary or secondary aim, and included human subjects, where identified. Studies were assessed for quality based on methodological approach and data relevance on a three-point scale (strong, moderate, or weak). RESULTS: Of the 19 studies related to the purpose and aims, 17 reported evidence of a positive correlation between altitude and increased suicide. Vast design differences were employed within the literature, individual-level suicide data was identified as the preferred level of analysis. DISCUSSION: The relationship between altitude and suicide is an evolving science with a small but growing body of literature suggesting altitude is associated with an increased risk of suicide. This review identifies the need for additional studies examining both individual-level suicide data and improving geographic precision. Public health nurses have a responsibility to carefully examine the quality of studies and the strength of the evidence when addressing variables associated with suicide.

Value-informed nursing practice is needed to make our healthcare systems more environmentally sustainable.

In this 3rd part of our 6-part series on value-informed nursing practice-practice that focuses on both achieving desired patient outcomes and minimizing the use of costly resources to achieve these outcomes-we focus on the importance of nurses in improving environmental outcomes and reducing costly environmental waste. We also propose how nursing education needs to change to prepare the next generation of nurses to effectively address environmental problems through providing value-informed nursing practice.

Value-informed nursing practice: What is it and how to make it a reality.

Nurses make decisions about the use of costly resources in countless care delivery settings 24 hours a day. Consequently, nurses are inseparably connected to not only the quality and safety of care, but to the cost-of-care as well. This article is Part 1 of a 6-part series on value-informed nursing practice. It describes the concept of 'value-informed nursing practice'-practice that focuses not only on outcomes, but also on the cost of care-as a new way to envision nursing practice.

Characteristics of family nurse practitioners and their preparation for practice in rural vs urban employment settings.

BACKGROUND: Policymakers are increasingly interested in using nurse practitioners to provide health care to rural populations, yet little is known about their characteristics and preparation for independent practice. METHODS: We obtained data from the 2018 National Sample Survey of Registered Nurses and compared characteristics of family nurse practitioners (FNPs) employed in rural areas versus those employed in non-rural areas. Regression analysis was used to determine the relationship between the outcome variable of interest, preparation for practice and other covariates. FINDINGS: FNPs practicing in a rural setting felt less prepared for independent practice than their counterparts in non-rural settings except for those prepared with a doctoral degree. DISCUSSION: The majority of FNPs working in rural areas believed they were not as well prepared for independent practice. Because rural FNPs often practice autonomously and without medical back up, nursing educators need to educate FNPs with the skills and knowledge necessary to practice effectively in rural settings.

Nurse Employment During The First Fifteen Months Of The COVID-19 Pandemic.

Analysis of Current Population Survey data suggests a tightening labor market for registered nurses, licensed practical nurses, and nursing assistants, marked by falling employment and rising wages through June 2021. Unemployment rates remain higher in nonhospital settings and among registered nurses and nursing assistants who are members of racial and ethnic minority groups.

Optimal Staffing Models To Care For Frail Older Adults In Primary Care And Geriatrics Practices In The US.

Different staffing configurations in primary and geriatric care practices could have implications for how best to deliver services that are essential for a growing population of older adults. Using data from a 2018 survey of physicians (MDs) and nurse practitioners (NPs) working in primary and geriatric care, we assessed whether different configurations were associated with better or worse performance on a number of standard process measures indicative of comprehensive, high-quality primary care. Practices with a large concentration of MDs had the highest estimated labor costs. Practices high in NPs and physician assistants (PAs) were most common in states that grant full scope of practice to NPs. The high-NP/PA configuration was associated with a 17-percentage-point greater probability of facilitating patient visits and a 26-percentage-point greater probability of providing the full bundle of primary care services compared with the high-MD model. Team-based configurations had a 27.7-percentage-point greater probability of providing the full bundle of primary care services. The complex needs of older adults may be best served by team-based practices with a broad provider mix that can provide a range of services in the office and the community.